Judging Freedom; edition of 14 November 2024: Will Russia Protect Iran
The question of the US possibly attacking Iran was posed by Judge Napolitano given bellicose statements of the newly named candidate members of Donald Trump's administration, Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth.
However, as I explain in this interview, I do not give any credence to such concerns. Yes, most members of the 'power ministries' Trump has named are tough guys. But talking tough is most likely just a necessary Act One to precede an Act Two when we see a possible outreach to Iran by the President himself similar to what he did with Kim Jong Un of North Korea. Back then his move was sabotaged by Bolton and other assistants who were determined to undermine his foreign policy initiatives. This time his team will consist only of loyalists who will bite their tongues on relations with Iran and do his bidding.
When I say this I have in mind how the United States normalized relations with the People's Republic of China in the 1970s. It was precisely the leading anti-Communist among American politicians, Richard Nixon, who was able to pull off the enormous concession of agreeing to a One China policy. Similarly, it was that same arch anti-Communist who entered into detente with the Soviets. Donald Trump may not have a great interest in history overall but I think he is well aware of the foregoing preconditions for slashing the Gordian knots that the Democrats have created with Russia and in West Asia.
Let us assume that I am wrong and Trump goes against his own first principle of not starting new wars and joins Israel in an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and oil and gas production infrastructure. What will the Russians do? At the very least, they will provide Iran with whatever it needs to reduce the damage of such an attack by supplying still more S400 air defenses as well as advanced fighter jets to keep US and Israeli planes at a distance from the Iranian frontiers. They will provide satellite and AWACS intelligence to thwart the intentions of the US and Israeli forces.
However, I think that the Russians would devote more attention to providing technical assistance and offensive materiel to all of the axis of resistance countries as they strike US assets in the region. Surely the Russians were a factor in the successful Houthi missile and drone attack yesterday on the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and its task force, which are now said to be withdrawing from the Red Sea and Persian Gulf to San Diego, presumably for repairs. In this way, the Russians can frustrate US intentions in the region without entering into a direct military clash with American forces that would be escalatory.
But saying this is to omit the Chinese factor which will certainly come into play if there is a risk of US-Israeli attack on the oil and gas facilities of Iran. China is greatly dependent on oil from Iran and from other Persian Gulf suppliers to maintain its industry. If risk of US attack were coming, the Chinese have the means to deliver great setbacks to the US position in the Pacific, beginning with a rapid takeover of Taiwan by means of naval and air blockade such as they were rehearsing a month ago.
For additional information on the Kremlin's appreciation of Trump's nomination of Tulsi Gabbard to head US Intelligence of Matt Gaetz as Attorney General , as well as the selection by Senate Republicans of the non-Trumpite John Thune to be their leader, I can recommend a viewing of the interview on Dr. Gilbert Doctorow : Will Russia Protect Iran?